With Mumbai facing the potential of permanent inundation due to increasing sea levels before the end of the century, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has commissioned a new evaluation of the city’s vulnerability to sea-level rise, the second in five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new climate-risk study, which is now ongoing, will map susceptible portions along Mumbai’s 149-kilometer coastline, identify inhabited areas at risk, and examine how changes in land use, coastal development, and climate patterns have impacted the city’s vulnerability. The report is scheduled to be released next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The action comes in the wake of a recent United Nations assessment warning that global sea levels will rise by a record 5.9 mm in 2024 and at least 0.5 meter by 2100, even under aggressive emission-reduction scenarios. Under the worst-case scenario of West Antarctic ice sheet instability, the rise might be as much as two meters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A senior civic official familiar with the evaluation stated that the fresh analysis was necessary given the major developments along Mumbai’s shoreline over the last five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Over the previous five years, Mumbai’s waterfront has seen tremendous changes. The Coastal Road has been built along the western beachfront, reclaiming around 100 hectares of the Arabian Sea. On the eastern side, salt pan areas have been identified for development. There has also been a shift in the general land use pattern. According to the official, a new risk assessment was required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unlike the UN review, which examines sea-level rise on a worldwide basis, the BMC study will concentrate on Mumbai. It will investigate local characteristics that contribute to coastal vulnerability, forecast future sea-level rise, and identify potentially vulnerable communities living along the beach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The BMC’s first Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP), published in 2022, listed coastal flooding, rising pollution, loss of green cover, and rising urban heat as major climate concerns to the city. It also anticipated that 80 percent of Mumbai’s island city would be flooded by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scientists have linked rising sea levels to global warming and rising sea surface temperatures (SST). The 2022 MCAP found that SST in the Arabian Sea has steadily increased during the previous two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“While the analysis of annual mean SST between 2003 and 2020 shows an absence of a statistically significant trend in sea level variations, a slight steady increase of 0.025\u00b0C per year for daytime SST and 0.019\u00b0C per year for nighttime SST has been observed,” the paper said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Raghu Murtugudde, retired professor at the University of Maryland and visiting professor at IIT Bombay, stated that warming in Europe and West Asia was also contributing to rising temperatures in the Arabian Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Over the last few years, we’ve observed more irregular rainfall patterns, with Mumbai receiving above-average rainfall. Heavy rainfall and huge tidal surges are combining to flood Mumbai, posing a significant risk to residents of the island metropolis,” he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Roxy Mathew Koll, an oceanographer and climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), stated that Mumbai’s location makes it particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Rapid development, concretization, and land-use changes reduce floodplain size and congest waterways. The Bandra Kurla Complex was developed on mangrove area, and the Mithi River has been reduced to a nallah due to highways and encroachment. “The Mumbai floods are more of a management problem caused by unplanned development than a climate change problem,” he stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Koll stated that conserving mangroves and coastal wetlands will be crucial to strengthening Mumbai’s resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Traditionally, mangroves and floodplains have served as the city’s lungs, shielding it from floodwaters and severe winds. “Protecting and expanding these coastal wetlands can significantly improve Mumbai’s resilience to sea-level rise while providing safe habitats for biodiversity and marine life,” he stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The MCAP found significant changes in Mumbai’s mangrove cover between 2008 and 2021. According to the assessment, 325 hectares of thick mangrove cover had become sparse or turned into intertidal mudflats as a result of erosion and sedimentation, while density had increased on approximately 305 hectares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With Mumbai facing the potential of permanent inundation due to increasing sea levels before the end of the century, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has commissioned a new evaluation of the city’s vulnerability to sea-level rise, the second in five years. The new climate-risk study, which is now ongoing, will map susceptible portions along Mumbai’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t